长江上游干支流洪水组成与遭遇研究

Research on flood composition and encounter of main streams and tributaries in upper Yangtze River

通过对长江上游洪水组成及遭遇规律的研究,可为长江中游干流控制性枢纽制定调度方案提供理论基础。根据各代表站实测资料(包括年最大洪水及发生时间),考虑洪水传播时间,逐年分析金沙江与岷江、长江与嘉陵江、长江与乌江的洪水遭遇可能性,然后分析遭遇概率的高低和遭遇洪水量级。研究成果表明,长江与岷江、嘉陵江洪水遭遇概率较高,除个别年份外,一般遭遇洪水量级较小;长江与乌江洪水遭遇概率较低,且遭遇洪水一般为中小洪水;长江上游干支流同时发生较大洪水遭遇的机率很小。

Through studying the laws of flood composition and encounter of upper Yangtze River, a theoretical basis for developing regulation scheme of the controlling projects （such as TGP） on Yangtze River can be provided. According to the measured data of the representative stations, such as annual maximum flood and its occurrence time, considering the propagation time of the flood, the possibilities of flood encounter of Jinsha River and Minjiang River, Yangtze River and Jialing River, Yangtze River and Wujiang River, are analyzed year by year, so is the probabilities and magnitudes of the encountered floods. The results show that the probabilities of flood encounter of Yangtze River and Minjiang River, Yangtze River and Jialing River are relatively high, and magnitudes of encounter floods are generally small, except individual years. The probability of flood encounter of Yangtze River and Wujiang Rive is low and all encountered floods are small or medium - sized. The probability of flood encounter of all tributaries and main streams in upstream of the Yangtze River at the same time is very low.