巢湖流域水安全评价的集对分析模型

Set pair analysis model for water safety evaluation of Chaohu Watershed

集对分析方法从同、异、反3方面综合描述事物之间的联系,能有效地描述水安全系统的确定不确定关系。利用联系数描述水安全系统的确定不确定关系时,差异度系数i在[-1,1]之间取值是不确定的,为刻画差异度系数取值的不确定性,提出利用三角模糊数表示差异度系数i,建立流域水安全评价的集对分析模型,并应用于巢湖流域水安全综合评价。结果表明:巢湖流域9区(县)及全流域的水安全状况从高到低依次为:合肥、居巢、含山、全流域、和县、庐江、无为、肥西、舒城和肥东。流域水安全评价的集对分析模型能有效利用三角模糊数联系数确定水安全等级,为流域水安全问题研究提供了一种新的方法,具有一定的推广应用价值。

The set pair analysis method comprehensively describes the relationship between things from an identicaldiscrepancy-contrary perspective, and can effectively describe the certainty and uncertainty of a water safety system. When using the connection number to describe the certainty and uncertainty of the water safety system, the discrepancy coefficient i in the range of [ - 1, 1 ] is uncertain. In order to demonstrate this uncertainty, the triangular fuzzy number was used to define the discrepancy coefficient i. The set pair analysis model for the evaluation of the watershed water safety was established and applied to the comprehensive evaluation of water safety in the Chaohu Watershed. The results show that the ranking of the water safety status in nine districts and counties of the Chaohu Watershed and in the whole watershed is in the following descending order： Hefei, Juchao, Hanshan, the whole watershed, Hexian, Lujiang, Wuwei, Feixi, Shucheng, and Feidong. This set pair analysis model can effectively identify water safety grades by using the connection number of the triangle fuzzy number, thus providing a new approach for water safety evaluation, and it has a certain applicable value.