公司运营危机预警模型的比较研究——以中国上市公司为例

Comparing Research of Different Operational Distress Early-warning Models——Taking Chinese Listed corporations as Example

研究当前国内外公司运营危机预警问题的现状,首先要寻找一套适合于我国上市公司的财务状况识别指标体系,然后依据该指标体系采用不同方法建立运营危机预警模型,最后利用样本公司实际指标数据对各个模型的短期及中期预警效果进行比较分析与实证研究。结果表明,分类树模型的三年期预警准确率都在80%以上。

Considering the international and domestic actuality of corporate operational distress early-warning. We put forward some methods and guide lines, so as to some distinguished indices can be selected. Thus operational distress early-warning models applied to Chinese listed corporations are developed. Finally, demonstration research and comparison of the early-warning models is carried out using actual data. The results indicate that the classification tree model outperforms discriminant analysis, logistic regression and BP artificial networks models with discrimicant accurate rate of 80%.