破解“猪周期”困局——安徽省枞阳、灵璧两县生猪业发展调研启示

Solutions to the Problem of "Pig Cycle"——Based on the study of the development of the pig farming industry in Zongyang and Lingbi

近10多年来,我国生猪业的发展始终处于剧烈的波动之中,形成所谓的"猪周期"。文章通过调研,深入分析了生猪业周期性波动的特点和规律,剖析了其中的原因。认为"猪周期"是一种典型的"蛛网现象",生猪生产大起大落的主因是,生猪较长的饲养周期决定了其产量难以灵活调节,生猪养殖规模化程度不高决定了行业内存在较显著的盲目生产行为。文章最后就破解"猪周期"困局提出了对策建议。

In the past 10 years, the pig farming industry in China has experienced periodical fluctuations in production and prices, forming the ＂pig cycle＂. This paper analyses the characteristics and rules of as well as reasons for periodical fluctuations through investigations and considers that ＂pig cycle＂ is a typical ＂cobweb phenomenon＂. Periodical fluctuations of the pig farming industry are mainly caused by long pig breeding period which is hard to regulate and low mass production level usually leads to irrational production activities in the industry. This paper eventually puts forward some suggestions and solutions to the problem of ＂pig cycle＂.