粮食市场机制分析——产量与价格的互动

An Analysis of the Mechanism of the Grain Market——Interaction between output and price

粮食产量与价格之间的关系是粮食市场的基本方面。通过计量经济方法从产量与单产数据中去除灾害的扰动,粮食产量与价格之间的统计关系更能解释二者之间的互动机制。通过实证检验,发现粮食市场中确实存在蛛网模型的动态机制,同时也受到货币发行量变化的重大影响。另外,粮食生产者也能够对真实粮食几个变化做出合理的反应。因此,在政策上保证粮食价格的比较优势、维持货币发行的稳定以及提升粮食生产应对自然灾害的能力有助于促进粮食安全和市场稳定。

The dynamic interrelationship between grain output and its price takes an important role in the grain market.With correcting data to remove the impacts of natural calamities,the empirical results show that there exists a cobweb dynamic mechanism in the market,and price of grain is also influenced by the variation of money issuing.At the meantime,farmers can respond to the change of real price reasonably.Therefore,it is vital to maintain comparative advantage of grain price to other industries,keep a smooth money supply,and improve the capability of anti-calamity in agriculture.