重庆市房地产市场泡沫测度研究

Measuring Research on Estate Market Bubble of Chongqing

房地产业已经成为中国国民经济的支柱产业.随着房地产市场的快速发展,关于房地产市场是否存在泡沫的问题成为各界关注的焦点.通过选取房地产泡沫测度指标,使用熵权法和AHP法确定指标组合权重,运用功效系数法计算出房地产市场泡沫综合测度系数K,并以重庆市为例进行实证研究.结果表明:在2002,2003和2008年K值处于警戒水平,其余年份K值均处于安全水平,重庆市房地产市场总体发展较为平稳.

Real estate has become one of the pillar industries of China＇s national economy. With the rapid development of the real estate market, the issue whether the real estate market bubble exists has become the focus of public attention. In this paper, after choosing several indices for measuring the real estate bubble, entropy weight and AHP methods have been used to determine combination weight,then the com- prehensive measure coefficient （K） has been obtained by applying efficacy coefficient method. In particular, Chongqing was taken as an example for demonstration. The results show that K value of 2002, 2003 and 2008 are in the alert level, while others are market develops smoothly and stably as a whole.