我国城市化对就业影响效应分析——基于1978-2010年的经验数据

Analysis on Effect of Urbanization on Employment:Based on Empirical Data during 1978-2010

利用1978—2010年的时间序列数据,通过协整分析、脉冲响应分析和方差分解,对我国城市化对全社会就业总量、城镇就业量和乡村就业量的长期影响效应及动态过程进行了实证分析。结果表明:我国人口城市化与各就业量之间存在长期稳定均衡关系,城市化无论对我国就业还是对城乡就业均存在正向效应,但对城镇就业的推动作用要远大于对乡村就业及全社会就业的推动作用;我国城市化对就业的中短期影响效应与长期影响效应不一致;在中短期内,城市化水平的提升对城镇就业的影响程度相对长期而言要较弱,而对全社会就业和乡村就业不仅不存在正向的促进作用,反而存在一定程度的抑制作用。最后,分析了导致上述差异的原因,并就在我国城市化进程中如何有效提高我国就业水平提出相应的政策建议。

Using the time serial data during 1978-2010, this paper empirically analyzes the long-term effects of urbanization on total employment, urban employment and rural employment and the dynamic influence process through using the co-integration theory, impulse response and variance decomposition. The results show as follows：there are the long-run equilibrium relationship between urbanization and them, namely total employment, urban employment and rural employment, and the former has positive effects on the latter, but the impetus of urbanization on urban employment is much larger than that on total employment and rural employment; the short- and mid-term effects and long-term effects of urbani- zation on employment are not inconsistent; in the short- and mid-term, the effect of urbanization on urban employment is growing, but urbaniza- tion has inhibiting effects on total employment and rural employment rather than positive promoting roles. Finally,it analyzes the reason causing such differences, and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations to promote the employment level in the process of Chinas urbaniza- tion effectively.