基于因子分析的我国外贸出口影响因素研究

The Study of Influences on Foreign Export in China based on Factor Analysis

本文以1986-2008年我国年度经济数据为基础,并运用因子分析法对影响我国外贸出口的因素进行归类,研究结果表明不同时期影响出口的主要因素不同,例如在1991年以前,影响我国出口增长快慢的主要因素是国家的宏观经济政策,而1992-2000年间,对出口起主导作用的是我国供给生产力的大小,自入世之后,产品竞争力的大小则制约着我国出口的进一步发展。文章最后指出:政府要加大对外贸企业的引导作用,通过促进企业提高自主创新能力,来应对现在复杂的国际环境。

This paper uses the annual economic data between 1986 and 2008 as background,and categorizes influencing factor on our export by factor analysis.The results show different factors affects export mainly in the different period,for example macroeconomic policy affect the export growth rate mainly before 1991, between 1992 and 2000 the supply of production plays a leading role,the competitiveness of products restricts the export development since we＇re entry into WTO.Finally,the article indicates that government should strengthen the guidance to enterprises,promotes them to improve abilities for independent innovation facing the complicated international environment.