基于可计算一般均衡模型的农业政策模拟研究

Agricultural Policy Simulation Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model

[目的]针对定量研究国内农业补贴政策的需要,探讨基于可计算一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium,CGE)的农业政策模拟系统模拟效果。[方法]将政策模拟、CGE模型以及DSS决策系统进行集成研究,构造一个基于CGE模型的政策模拟系统平台,并在所设计的模拟平台原型中,通过情景分析方法对农业补贴政策模拟进行实证分析。[结果]农业生产补贴的上调主要收益者是农民,增加了农民收入,提高了农业产品的出口;模拟系统在一定程度上能够解决实际政策模拟问题。[结论]该研究结果为国内农业补贴政策的定量研究奠定了基础。

[Objective] To examine the simulated effect of Computable General Equilibrium（CGE） based agricultural policy simulation system.[Method] The policy simulation platform based on CGE model was constructed by integrating policy simulation,CGE model and Decision Supporting System（DSS）.The scenario analysis method was used to analyze the agricultural subsidies policy simulation with examples in the prototype of the designed policy simulation platform.[Result] The main beneficiaries of increasing agricultural production subsidies are farmers,increasing farmers＇ income and improving the export of agriculture products.The prototype system can solve the problems in actual policy simulation.[Conclusion] The results laid the foundation for the quantitative study on agricultural subsidy policy in China.