美国农产品出口贸易的影响因素分析——基于恒定市场份额模型测算

The Analysis of Influential Factors of US Agricultural products export: Based on Constant Market Share Model

本文针对2000-2009年美国农产品出口现状,采用恒定市场份额模型,对影响美国农产品出口规模变动的因素进行了分析。结果表明:美国农产品出口波动主要依赖于世界市场农产品需求的变化,世界农产品贸易的总体需求水平对美国农产品出口贸易有着显著影响,而产品的结构和竞争力对出口贸易贡献相对较小。

Based on the study of export of US agricultural products in 2000-2009, the study uses the Constant Market Share Model to analyze the ex- port changes in the scale of US agricultural products. The result indicates that the demand increase of the agricultural products in the world market is the most important factor that influences the changes in exports, while the structure and competitiveness of products do not contribute much to the export fluctuation.