我国对拉美新兴市场出口的影响因素研究——基于引力模型和变系数面板数据模型的实证分析

The Influencing Factors of China’s Exports to New Emerging Markets in Latin America:An Empirical Study Using Gravity Model and Variable Coefficient Panel Data Regression

选取巴西、智利和阿根廷为代表,借助引力模型,在对面板数据进行单位根检验和协整分析的基础上,运用变系数面板回归模型,实证分析了我国对拉美新兴市场出口的影响因素问题。结果表明,贸易摩擦显著影响了我国对其出口;人民币汇率变动的影响,应视进口国货币汇率变化情况和双方贸易的互补性和竞争性程度而定;拉美地区人均收入的提高会降低对我国产品的需求;双边良好的经济基础为我国出口提供了有效保障;虽然我国对拉美新兴市场出口较多,但利润较低。最后还从经济与贸易角度对上述实证结果进行了解读,并提出了相应的对策建议。

This paper selects Brazil, Chile and Argentina as representatives, uses the gravity model as a tool, then after panel data unit root and co-integration test, applies a variable coefficient panel data regression model to conduct empirical analysis on the factors influencing China＇ s exports to the new emerging markets in Latin America. The results are as follows： trade frictions have significantly affected Chinas exports to them; the influence of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations depends on the importing country＇ s currency rate change, the com- plementary and competitive degrees of the bilateral trade relations; the rise of Latin American per capita income leads to reduced demand for our exports; the solid bilateral economic foundations provide an effective safeguard; although Chinas exports to them have increased sharply, they are making less profits. The paper interprets the above findings from the economic and trade perspectives and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures in the end.