我国信贷周期形成和影响因素:基于VAR模型的实证研究

Credit Cycle Formation And Influencing Factors of Our Country:An Empirical Research Based on VAR Model

对我国信贷数据研究发现,1979年至2010年我国经历了四个信贷周期,目前我国处于自2006年开始的信贷周期的下降通道中。同时,利用协整检验和VAR模型进行实证研究,结果显示GDP、存款、存款利率、贷款利率对信贷周期形成具有重要作用。

Studying on China＇s credit data , we find that our country has expenrienced four credit cycles from 1979 to 2010, and at present our country is in the credit cycle starting from 2006. At the same time, using the cointegration test and the VAR model analyse our country＇s credit cycle , empirical study implies GDP, deposit, deposit rate, lending rate have an important role in the credit cycle formation.