货币政策工具类型与区域房价:调控效果的比较研究

Different Types of Monetary Policy Tools and Regional Housing Prices:a Comparative Study on the Effects of Regulation

通过建立状态空间模型,运用卡尔曼滤波解法,并使用系统聚类法将我国各省区按照房价高低重新划分为三个区域,比较分析了两类货币政策工具对不同区域房价的动态影响特点。实证结果表明:以M2为代表的数量工具和以利率为代表的价格工具对各区域房价的影响力都在不断扩大,但是前者的影响力显著强于后者;数量工具的"分层效应"更明显,即区域差异性更大,对房价越高的地区影响力越大。因此要根据两类货币政策工具对区域房价影响效果的特点,在不同时期按照对房地产市场调控的需要,调整和优化货币政策的工具组合,才能达到我国房地产市场的调控目标。

by establishing a State--space model and applying the Caiman Filter calculation, and using system clustering method to classify China＇s provinces into 3 groups in accordance with the housing price level, so that to make a comparative analysis of effects of the two types of monetary policy tools towards different areas. The empirical results show that both the quantitative tools represented by M2 and the pricing tools represented by real rate, have increasing influence to regional housing prices, but the former influence is stronger than the latter; The regional differences of quantitative tools is much greater, which means the higher the housing prices in the region and the larger the influence will become. Therefore, according to these characteristics of the two types of monetary policy tools, we shall adjust and optimize the combination of monetary policy tools in different periods according to the requirements of the regulation of the real estate market, so that to achieve our regulation aim towards the real estate market.