两代流动人口在城镇定居意愿的代际延续和变化——基于福建省的调查

THE CONTINUITY AND CHANGE IN THE URBAN SETTLEMENT INTENTION BETWEEN THE TWO GENERATION MIGRANTS——Based on a Survey in Fujian Province

本文利用一项福建省流动人口抽样调查资料,对两代流动人口在城镇定居意愿的差异进行了深入考察。结果表明,新生代流动人口在城镇的定居意愿虽已发生不同于第一代流动人口的变化,但在整体上仍延续了前者的特点而未发生从循环流动向在城镇定居的根本性转变。同时,两代流动人口在城镇的定居意愿除受到户籍制度的限制外,还受到流动人口在以劳动密集型行业为主导的次级劳动市场高度集中、就业不稳定、社会保障水平低、在城市的生存能力有限等状况的制约。这些结论对制定符合流动人口实际的相关政策具有重要启示。

Using data from a representative survey of migrants in Fujian Province,a major migrant destination in China,this paper examines the continuity and change in the settlement intention in the cities between the two generations of migrants under a comprehensive theoretical framework incorporating Piore＇s dual labour market theory,the theory of new economics of labour migration,and other theoretical and empirical research results concerning conditions for the existence and transformation of circular and temporary migration.The results suggest that while the characteristics of the new generation migrants are indeed different from those of the first generation migrants and this has resulted in the former＇s higher settlement intention in the cities,such differences are often exaggerated.On the whole,the majority of both generations of migrants still do not regard cities as their final destination,and there are still more similarities than differences between the two generations of migrants in this regards.The paper also examines factors affecting the continuity and change in the settlement intention in the cities between the two generations of migrants,arguing that it is constrained not only by the hukou system,but also other structural factors.These include the dominant role of labour intensive industries in China＇s current economic development,the concentration of migrant workers in the secondary sector of the segmented dual labour market,the unstable employment and low social insurance coverage for migrants,and their limited capability to live in cities,all of which constitute constrains for the dominant migration patterns of both generations of migrants to transform from temporary ones to permanent ones.