跨境资本自由流动的政治经济学分析

Managing Cross-border Capital Flow: From A Political Economic Perspective

20世纪70年代以来,理论界和国际社会基本秉承资本自由流动能够改善资源全球配置的理念,宣称资本流出国与流入国都将从中受益。然而2010年开始,全球范围内掀起一轮资本管制的浪潮,新兴市场国家和部分发达国家主张采取征收资本利得税或者金融交易税的方式,抑制跨境资本的大范围流动,维持本国经济政策的独立性和有效性。作者结合"新自由主义"和"国家干预主义"的理论思想,比较分析跨境资本自由流动的利弊,提出新兴市场国家在特定条件下针对短期资本流动应该加以管制。同时,发达市场政府对资本自由流动态度的变化是国内利益集团矛盾冲突与调和的结果,不同利益集团党派偏好和选举周期最终影响资本流动的政策选择,欧美国家本国经济低迷迫使其实行国内保护的资本流动政策来缓解矛盾。全球化下的国际金融市场需要一种全新的国际管理机制解决市场失灵问题,应对资本流动产生的跨国溢出效应需要有效的国际协调,构建反映新的实力分配的全球治理框架,从而寻找到集体利益和本国利益的平衡点。

This paper analyzes the cost and benefit of capital liberalization from a political economic perspective. Based on the observation of the relationship between capital liberalization and financial crisis in the past decades,the recent surge of capital controls in many emerging economies,and tight prudential capital management in some developed economies,the paper argues that free flow of capital without regulation has become the major source of financial instability. The driving forces behind policy prefer-ences with regard to capital liberalization in developed economies are determined by two factors: domestic vest of interests in favor of different parties and the cycle of elections. Finally,in order to deal with the spillover effect of domestic policies,the paper calls for a well-established global financial governance,strong coordination among different nations and a better representation of new economic powers.