教育：过去、现在与未来的全球挑战

Education:Past,Present and Future Global Challenges

1990年以来全球教育发展缓慢,且各国发展速度不同。普及基础教育仍是发展中国家政府与国际组织亟待实现的目标。这与近年来经济学关于人力资本对于经济增长以及社会发展的催化作用的研究发现形成鲜明对照。本研究基于一个新构建的教育数据库与1950—2010年的国民账户数据,采用不同的方法与若干国家案例,估计与人力资本积累缓慢相关的收入损失及其对公平的影响。研究还基于各国过去与未来加速人力资本积累的假设,推算了1900—1950年与2010—2050年的情况。研究发现,以人均收入表示的福利损失至少为7～10个百分点。此外,提高人均受教育年限对于减少收入不平等也有影响。

Progress in educational development in the World since 1900 has been slow and uneven between countries. Providing basic education for all children in developing countries has been and remains an unmet challenge of govermnents and international organizations alike. This is in sharp contrast to recent findings in the economics literature on the catalytic role of human capital for economic growth and social development in general. Using a newly constructed matched data set on education and national accounts in the 1950 to 2010 period, we estimate the loss of income and equity associated with not having a faster rate of human capital accumulation using alternative methodologies and specific country examples. Such loss is projected back （1900-1950） and forward （2010-2050） using plausible assumptions regarding what countries could have done in the past or may do in the future to accelerate human capital formation. Our findings suggest that the welfare loss in terms of per capita income conservatively ranges from about 7 to 10 percent. Improved educational attainment is also shown to have an effect in reducing income inequality.