对当前我国通货膨胀问题的反思

A Reflection on the current China's inflation problem

当前,我国正面临着相当严峻的通货膨胀压力。通货膨胀不但导致企业运行成本上升、居民生活消费支出加大、居民储蓄倾向下降,而且加剧了经济危机爆发的可能和通胀预期管理的难度。我国目前和未来通胀的原因集中体现在三个方面:过于宽松的货币政策导致的国内流动性过剩,美元泛滥和国际大宗商品价格暴涨向中国的输入,以及人口红利拐点和农业自然灾害背景下的劳动力成本及农产品价格的大幅上升。因此,应多措并举、协调配合,灵活运用积极稳健的有效措施,以有效缓解通胀压力,即:1.调整货币政策目标,严格控制流动性;2.转变贸易政策导向,减少外汇储备占款;3.加快经济结构调整,根本转变经济发展方式;4.恰当引导公众通胀预期,促进物价稳定;5.加强农业生产,促进商品流通。

Currently, our country is facing quite severe inflation pressure. Inflation will not only cause the cost rise of enterprise, living consumption increases of residents, decline of dweller deposit, but also aggravated the probability of economic crisis and the difficulty of inflation expectations management. Causes of Chinag present and future inflation are mainly embodied in three aspects ： first, loose monetary policy leads to domestic liquidity surplus ; secondly, a flood of dollars and international commodity prices imports into Chinese input; thirdly, the demographic dividend inflection and natural disaster of agriculture caused the great rise of labor costs and prices of agricultural products. Therefore, we should take measures in order to effectively alleviate the inflation pressure, namely： 1. To adjust the goal of monetary policy, and strictly control the liquidity;2. To transform trade policy and reduce the foreign exchange reserves ;3, To accelerate the adjustment of economic structure to a fundamental transformation of economic de- velopment mode; 4. To properly guide the public inflation expectations and stimulate price stability; 5. To strengthen agricultural production and promote the circulation of commodities.