房产税改革与房价变动的宏观经济效应--基于DSGE模型的数值模拟分析

Macroeconomic Effects of House Property Tax Reform and House Price Movement:A Simulation Analysis Based on DSGE Model

本文通过构建动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)和基于该模型的数值模拟,讨论了房产税改革和房价变化所可能产生的宏观经济效应。主要结论有:旨在对住房持有环节征税的房产税改革在长期可以有效降低房价,并且能发挥良好的自动稳定器功能以平抑房价变化所导致的宏观经济波动,但同时也会给宏观经济带来一定的负面影响;房价的适度上涨在短期内对宏观经济具有负面效应,但该负面效应一般会逐渐消失并最终转化为正面促进作用;超过一定限度的房价上涨速度将会给宏观经济带来严重的负面影响。

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model to describe the macro- economic effects of house property tax reform and house price movement. Based on the results of numerical sim- ulations, this paper finds some useful results. House property tax reform will reduce the house price but also bring bad news for China＇s macro economy. The automatic stabilizer effects of house property tax will be more effective after the reform. Positive shocks from house price could bring negative effects for macro economy in the short-term, but the negative effects will translate into positive effects within several years. There is a threshold effect that the macro economy would become stagnancy if the growth rate of house price overran the threshold.