担保链危机的传染机制

The Infection Mechanism of the Guarantee Chain Crisis

定义了担保链危机的概念,将现实经济体中企业之间的担保代偿关系抽象成担保链模型,分析了担保链危机的传染过程,发现担保链危机发生一级近邻传染、二级近邻传染、停止传染的临界条件与企业担保调整后的资产负债率有关。建立了担保链危机传染模型,发现触发担保链危机发生一级近邻传染的临界条件、继续传染的临界条件和危机停止传染的条件与企业对外担保金额有关。该模型有助于监管机构用资产负债率和对外担保金额两个指标对担保链中的企业进行风险预警,防止和减少危机的扩散,对促进区域经济可持续发展和金融繁荣稳定具有积极作用。

In thia paper the concept of the guarantee chain crisis is defined;the relationship of the enterprises’ guarantee in real economy is Abstract into guarantee chain model;the infecting process of the guarantee chain crisis is analyzed.It is found that the critical conditions of level 1 Neighbor Infection,level 2 Neighbor Infecting and stopping Infecting of the guarantee chain crisis correlate with the asset-liability ratio after adjusting with guarantee.Then the guarantee chain model is established.Result shows that the conditions triggering level 1 neighbor infection,continuing to infect and stopping infecting of the guarantee chain crisis relates to the enterprise’s amount of extemal guarantee.The model helps the regulators to warn the risk by two indexes,including asset-liability ratio and the external guarantee amount,so as to prevent and reduce the infection of the crisis,which has a positive effect on promoting regional sustainable economic development and financial stability.