房地产行业对于创业活动的挤出效应——基于中国跨地区面板数据的分析

The Crowding out Effect of Real Estate Industry on Entrepreneurship: An Analysis Based on the Chinese Cross-region Panel Data

很多社会人士认为,房地产行业将会对创业活动造成挤出效应,但是,相关的实证数据非常缺乏。本文建立了房地产行业与创业活动的面板数据模型,用地区创业活动数量作为因变量,房地产投资和房价作为自变量,人口、万人拥有公共车辆、区域财政收入、固定资产投资、人均消费、职工工资作为控制变量,研究了房地产行业对创业活动的挤出效应。研究结果显示,在控制了其他变量之后,房价对于创业活动具有显著的负面作用。因此,房地产对于创业活动的挤出效应影响主要体现为房价的挤出效应。

This paper builds up a panel data model of real estate industry and entrepreneurship, trying to test the struc tural relationship between these two variables. In this model, the dependent variable is the number of new ventures in each province per year. Data are collected from a professional survey company. An auxiliary variable adopted is from existing statistical yearbooks, which stands for the change of the＇ legal entities numbers in each province per year. The two independent variables are the average price of real estate and real estate investment in each province per year. The former variable directly reflects the prosperousness of the real estate industry and it can be easily ob served by average people. The latter variable reflects the economic attraction of the real estate industry. Overall, this paper reveals that the influence mechanism ot real estate moustry on reglona~ entreplcueul^uq,. At is because we can not find more specific data about regional entrepreneurship and real estate industry, some conclu sions in this paper remain unclear. To make further study in the future, more regional variables should be contained in the research model and more data should be collected to test the hypothesis.