基于季节ARIMA模型的电力系统负荷短期预测

Short-Term Forecasting Using Seasonal ARIMA Models in Power System

电力负荷是影响电网寿命和可靠度的一个重要因素,其月负荷变化具有明显的周期性.介绍了应用季节ARIMA模型进行电力负荷建模预测的理论和方法,将季节ARIMA模型应用于电力系统负荷短期预测,测试结果证明了方法的有效性.

Power load is one of the factors which affect the nature life and reliability of network in power system.Month load changes of power system have obvious periodicity. The theory and method to estabilish the time series model are discussed.Seasonal period forecastting method is used in short-term load forecasting of power sysem.The testing results show the effctiveness of the proposed method.