公共支出配置中的竞争——一个分析公共支出类别间互动关系的模型

Competition in the Allocation of Public Spending: A Model to Study the Interaction of Spending Categories

本文从经典公共支出决定的微观模型入手,分析得到一个研究公共支出间动态关系的理论模型。运用我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)2000-2006年的公共支出数据,采用联立方程模型及似不相关估计方法,对各类公共支出间的动态配置关系进行了实证研究。实证研究结果表明:第一,人均收入水平、人口数量以及公共支出总额对公共支出的配置有显著性影响;第二,公共支出受到前一期自身支出的显著影响,表现出正向路径依赖。不同类别的公共支出间存在显著的"互补"型或"替代"型动态互动关系。

Based on classical public spending determination model, a framework of analyzing dynamic competitive relationship between public spending categories was derived. The paper then empirically examined the interaction between public spending categories by using data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2006, applying simultaneous equations and SUR techniques. The results showed that： Firstly, the level of per capita income, population characteristics and total amount of public spending had significant impact on public resources allocation Secondly, public spending categories were influenced significantly by their own previous spending, indicating a positive path dependence. There were significant dynamic interaction patterns between different categories of public spending, either complementarily or substitutive.