中国货币流通速度的新度量:1978～2009

A New Measurement of China′s Velocity of Money: 1978～2009

货币流通速度是货币理论研究的热点问题之一,对货币流通速度变动特征还存在许多争论,如何度量货币流通速度是解决争议的关键。以交易方程为基础,将虚拟经济因素整合到方程中,运用1978～2009的数据,分别计算M0、M1、M2的综合货币流通速度,结果表明:以1992年为界,三个层次的货币流通速度均呈现先递减后上升的"U型"特征,这与传统的货币流通速度递减假说具有重大差别。为了考察这一现象的成因,分别计算这一期间实体和虚拟经济中的货币流通速度,发现1992年以后随着中国资本市场规模的扩大,虚拟经济增长引致的货币流通速度加速效应,不仅抵消了实体经济中货币流通速度的递减效应,而且使得综合货币流通速度有所提高。

Velocity of money is one of the hot issues of monetary theoretical researches. How to measure velocity of money is the key to solve the arguments about its variation characteristics. Based on the equation of transaction and the data from 1978 to 2009, virtual economic factors are used to calculate the comprehensive velocity of MO, M1, and M2 respectively. The results show that the velocity of money at the three levels all show a ＂U - shape＂ variation in 1992, which is greatly different from the traditional hypothesis of the diminishing of money velocity. More calculations are made on the money velocity of the real and virtual economy in the period and the authors find that with the expansion of capital market in China after 1992, acceleration effect of money velocity caused by the virtual economic growth not only offset the diminishing effect of the real economy, but also improved the comprehensive velocity of money.