摘要
目前,单位根与协整检验法在房地产泡沫的研究中应用最为广泛,但这种方法存在一定缺陷。本文利用区制转移模型,对2001-2009年上海市房地产价格泡沫进行实证研究,结论表明上海房地产市场上非理性的狂热跟风行为并不是价格泡沫的形成原因,而是由人们对未来房地产投资收益的理性预期所引发,是一种理性价格泡沫。
At present, unit root and eointegration test are widely used to test house price bubbles, but they have some disadvantages. The paper empirically tests house price bubbles in Shanghai from 2001 to 2009 based on regime switching model. The results show that house price bubbles are not caused by irrational,fads and follower behavior. They are rational bubbles caused by people＇s rational expectation about future return of real estate investments.
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第6期99-103,共5页
Commercial Research
关键词
房价泡沫
协整检验
区制转移模型
理性泡沫
house price bubble
cointegration test
regime switching model
rational bubble
