中国国际资本流出特征、原因及其渠道

Characteristics,Reason and Channel of China International Capital Outflow

本文利用1994-2010年的时间序列数据,通过构建向量自回归模型,发现中国国际资本流出表现出以金融项目资金流出为主、投资收益汇出为辅的特征,国际资本在中国进行的套利交易是引发资本流出的主要原因。目前,为促进国际收支基本平衡,我国应积极拓宽资本流出的正规渠道,有效监管资本流出的非正规渠道,充分利用宏观政策适度收缩的调节效果,继续挤压国内资产价格泡沫,不断降低资本套利预期,适度压制人民币升值预期,引导富余资本合理有序流出国内。

Using the time series data of 1994-2010 years,by building vector auto-regression model,this paper finds that China international capital outflow is showing the characteristics what are mainly composed by financial items′ capital outflows,and supplemented by investment income remit.And arbitrage trading of international capital in China is the main reason leading to capital outflow.At present,in order to promote balance of international payments,China should actively expand the formal channels of capital outflow,effectively administer the non-formal channels of capital outflow,take full advantage of the moderating effects of macro-policy moderate contraction,continuely squeeze the price bubbles of domestic asset,constantly reduce the expectation of capital arbitrage,moderately suppress the expectation of RMB appreciation,and guide the surplus capital outflow from home reasonably and orderly.