基于一般均衡分析的中国出口乘数效应探讨

A General Equilibrium Analysis of China's Export Multiplier Effect

开放的四部门经济框架的一般均衡分析表明,在常规利率下,出口乘数的决定因素可以分为两类:一类是包含边际储蓄倾向、边际进口倾向和全社会边际税收率在内的负向影响因子;另一类是包含边际投资倾向、利率的投资综合效应和利率的储蓄综合效应等的正向影响因子.要提高我国的出口乘数效应,一方面要努力减少储蓄,增加投资,降低税率水平,减少进口对出口的依赖;另一方面要合理降低利率,提高利率对外贸乘数的投资综合效应和储蓄综合效应.

The general equilibrium analysis of the four opened economic sectors shows that,at the conventional interest rate,export multiplier determinants can be divided into two categories： one is the negative impact factors including the marginal propensity to saving,the marginal propensity to importing,and the marginal tax rate of the whole society;the other is positive impact factors including marginal propensity to investing,the comprehensive investment effect of interest rates,and the comprehensive savings effect of interest rates.To improve China＇s export multiplier effect,on one hand,we should make efforts to reduce savings,increase investment,lower the tax rate level,and reduce export dependence;on the other hand,we should reduce interest rates reasonably and increase the comprehensive effect of interest rates on foreign trade multiplier of investment and savings.