财政支出结构对国民福利的影响——基于协整方法与VEC模型实证分析

The Impact of Fiscal Expenditure Structure on National Welfare: an Empirical Analysis Based on Co-integration Method and VEC Model

财政支出可以增加国民福利,但如何安排财政支出结构,使国民福利最大化是一个重要的问题。协整检验与误差修正模型分析结果表明,短期中财政生产性支出以及消费性支出对福利的影响时大时小,甚至有时是负作用,但一般在下一期会对本期的增长做出迅速调整。长期来看,财政生产性支出对国民福利的影响较大,因此要提高人均福利,要提高财政生产性支出的比例。

Financial expenditure can improve national welfare. The point is how to arrange the structure of fiscal expenditure in order to maximize national welfare. Co-integration tests and error correction model analysis showed that the impact of short-term production expenditure and consumption one upon national welfare seems to be flexible and sometimes even negative. Generally speaking, it will accordingly make a rapid adjustment in the next period of growth. In the long run, fiscal production expenditure exerts a greater influence on national welfare. Hence we have to increase the rate of fiscal production expenditure so as to improve per capita welfare.