基于灰色理论的福州港货运吞吐量预测分析

Based on the Grey Theory Prediction and Analysis of Fuzhou Port Cargo Throughput

文中在描述福州港地理环境、外贸基础设施建设以及统计了福州港近几年港口的吞吐量作为预测的基本数据;介绍了本文采用的预测方法—灰色模型GM(1,1)的理论基础和建模方法.采用了灰色模型,预测了福州港和福建省港口未来五年的货物吞吐量的预测值,提出福州港应利用自身优势建立国际物流中心来应对未来货物吞吐量俱增的对策,对福建港口物流业的发展具有借鉴意义.

This paper describes the geographical environment and construction of the Foreign trade infrastructure of Fuzhou port, and statistics portg throughput of the Fuzhou port in recent years, as a predictor of basic data. This paper adopts the prediction method--the grey model theory. Used of grey prediction model, forecast Fuzhou port and Fujian port for the next five years car- go throughput , In this paper give us the Fuzhou port to establish international logistics center in the use of their own advantages to cope with future cargo throughput growing. Fujian port logistics industryg rapid development has important significance