摘要
本文选取安徽省历年各个学历毕业生人数作为人才需求指标.根据2006年至2010年的历史数据对2011年至2020年安徽省人才需求做了灰色预测分析,然后根据安徽发展现状、经济发展前景运用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数对2011年至2020年安徽省人才需求进行了预测.然后使用两个模型的组合预测对模型的预测结果进行了修正.预测结果基本能够反映安徽省在"十二五"规划和"十三五"规划期间,也就是未来十年经济发展对人才的需求水平.
This paper selects Anhui Province over the various degree graduates as talent demand index. According to the 2006 to 2010 history data on 2011 to 2020 in Anhui province talent demand for grey prediction analysis, and then according to the development condition of Anhui, economic development prospects of applying Ke cloth - Douglas production function on 2011 to 2020 in Anhui Province personnel demand forecast. Then using two models of combination forecast model forecast results are corrected. Prediction result is able to reflect the Anhui province in the “Twelfth Five -Year Plan” and “45 ” during the pro- gram, it is future ten years economy to expand the demand to the talent level.
出处
《枣庄学院学报》
2012年第2期71-77,共7页
Journal of Zaozhuang University
关键词
人才需求
组合预测
talent demand
combination forecast
