消费周期的持久性研究——基于城镇居民消费结构的视角

Research on the Persistence of the Consumption Cycle——Based on the Structure of Urban Residents' Consumption

以Hansen(1999)提出的Grid-Bootstrap技术为基础,通过构造统计无偏的中值估计量(Median UnbiasedEstimator)对我国城镇居民消费周期的持久性进行实证研究,结果表明:第一,八大类消费周期之间或是各消费周期与总消费周期相比,均呈现出迥异的持久性特征。第二,将各类消费周期持久性按顺序排列,排序结果与西方研究中关于耐用品消费持久性较低、非耐用品消费持久性较高这一结论存在一定差距。第三,与西方国家相比,我国各类消费周期的持久性普遍偏低。上述结论不仅丰富了消费周期的典型特征,还可为相关当局制定拉动内需政策提供参考依据。

Based on the Grid - Bootstrap technology developed by Hansen （ 1999 ）, this paper obtains the unbiased median estimator of the consumer cycle＇ s persistence. The results showed the foulwing. Firstly, eight categories of consumer cycle and total consumption cycle in all have different persistence characteristic. Secondly, the sequence of various types of consumer cycle＇ s persistence is differ- ent between the Similar Westem Research, in which the consumption of nondurable goods has low persistence, and durable goods have high persistence. Thirdly, compared with western countries, China＇ s various types of consumption cycle all have low persistence. These conclusions not only enrich the typical facts of consumption cycle, but also provide the reference for the policy of stimulating do- mestic demand for the authorities.