能源消费影响因素及辽宁省实证分析

Analysis and Empirical Study of Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption in Liaoning Province

以辽宁省总产值、居民消费水平、民用汽车拥有量、天然气和水电占能耗比重、总人口和第一、第二、第三产业产值占总产值比重等8个要素为自变量,以能源消费总量为因变量,构建能源消费回归模型;选用2001～2009年的时间序列样本数据,采用偏最小二乘法进行回归分析,对辽宁省的能源消费状况进行实证研究,提取影响该阶段辽宁省能源消费的主要因素,并提出相应的节能降耗措施.模型采用适用于小样本和自变量存在严重多重共线性的偏最小二乘法进行回归计算,提高了计算结果的可靠性;根据回归结果提出相应的节能建议,提高了节能建议的有效性和合理性.

An energy consumption regression model is constructs with a dependent variable and the eight inde- pendent variables, including GDP,resident consumption level, number of civil vehicles, proportion of natural gas and hydropower, population, proportions of primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry. Based on PLS regression method and the data of Liaoning Province from 2001 to 2009, the important factors for the energy consumption of Liaoning Province are confirmed. According to the results, some suggestions are proposed. The PLS method is applicable to small samples and serious muhicollinearity condition of independents. Therefore the results are more reliable. The suggestions are proposed based on the empirical results. Therefore they are more reasonable and effective.