中国经济增长与物质消耗关系的实证研究

Empirical Relationship Between Economic Growth and Material Input in China

本文运用广义最小平方法和处理面板数据的固定影响模型,利用我国各省市1995-2009年物质消耗指数、人均GDP和人均固定资产投资等跨部门的时间序列数据,分析经济增长与物质消耗的关系。其主要结论如下:经济增长与物质消耗呈现正向关系,没有表现出明显的去物质化。固定资产投资对物质消耗趋势在统计上具有很好的解释力。固定效应模型下的广义最小二乘法对于处理跨部门的时间序列数据有明显的效果,固定效应模型的省际差异项有效地刻画了物质消耗与经济增长相关关系的省级差异。我国目前仍处于有形资产的积累阶段,为了达到发达国家的固定资产积累水平,必要的基础设施建设不能缺少。产业结构的差异会影响物质消耗与经济增长的关系强度,第一产业相对于第二产业需要更多的物质消耗。经济发展水平同样会影响物质消耗与经济增长的关系强度,发达地区相对于欠发达地区需要的物质消耗更少。

Based on the time series cross-section （TSCS） data about index of material consumption, per capita GDP and per capita fixed assets investment （FAI） of all provinces and cities in China from 1995 to 2009, this paper analyzes the relationship between economic growth and material consumption by utilizing generalized least squares method （GLS） and fixed effects model dealing with panel data. The main conclusions are as follows： The relationship between economic growth and material consumption was positive, and did not show obvious dematerialization. The relationship between economic growth and FAI was significant statistically. Combining GLS with fixed-effect model is a helpful way to deal with TSCS data, and the provincial difference of relationship between economic growth and material consumption is well described with inter-provincial differences in [ CF = X] in the fixed-effect model. China is still in the stage of physical assets calculation. In order to reach developed countries＇ level, proper fundamental infrastructure is necessary. Industrial structure will influence the relationship between material consumption and economic growth. The primary and secondary industries need more material consumption than tertiary industry. The level of economy development will also affect the relationship between material consumption and economic growth. Developed areas need less material consumption.