贸易隐含污染物测算及结构绿色转型研究

Calculation of CO_2 Embodied in International Trade and Structural Green Transformation

该文根据中国2002年和2007年非竞争型投入产出表、OECD的国外投入产出表和GTAP Version 7.0的CO2排放强度等数据,利用多国投入产出模型方法测算了中国对外贸易中隐含污染物,分析了贸易隐含污染物的行业结构分布以及在主要贸易伙伴国中的贸易流向,并通过结构分解方法分析了出口规模总量、出口结构变化、投入产出表中间结构变化及单位产值CO2排放量四大因素对出口贸易隐含CO2的贡献。研究结果表明:2002-2007年间,我国对外贸易创造了巨大贸易顺差,同时也带来了大量隐含CO2、SO2顺差,2002年和2007年贸易隐含CO2顺差达6.21×108t和1.38×109t。2002年和2007年贸易隐含SO2顺差分别为323.99万t和674.54万t;出口贸易规模的扩大使我国出口贸易隐含CO2大幅增加,带来了巨大的环境压力,且出口贸易结构、投入产出中间结构变化也增加了出口贸易隐含CO2的排放。但是单位产值的CO2排放量的降低对抑制隐含CO2增长值发挥了十分重要作用,故需要进一步优化贸易结构,调整产业结构,提高能源利用效率,也就是贸易结构绿色转型势在必行。

Based on the data from China＇ s non-competitive input-output tables for 2002 and 2007, foreign input-output tables from OECD and foreign CO2 emission intensity from GTAP version 7.0, this paper calculates CO2, SO2 embodied in China＇ s international trade and analyzes the China＇ s trade flows to the major partners and industry distribution by using the ＂multi-country input-output table model＂. The paper also explains how the four factors （ change to the export scale, change to export structure; change to the structure of input-output tables, and the amount of CO2 emission per unit of economic output） contribute to the increasing CO2 embodied in China＇ s export trade by using decomposition analysis. The research shows that： in the period of 2002 to 2007, China＇ s international trade has created a large number of trade surplus as well as great amount of embodied pollutant surplus. There are embodied CO2 surplus 621 ×10^6t and 1 381.06 × 10^6 t respectively in 2002 and 2007, and embodied SO2 323.99 × 10^4 t and 674.54 × 10^4 t respectively in 2002 and 2007. The booming scale of China＇ s export trade is the major contributor to the increase of CO2 embodied in China＇ s export trade, and moreover, the foreign trade structure and intermediate input-output structure contribute to the increase of CO2 embodied in Chian＇s export trade. However, the dropping intensity of CO2 emission, caused by the advance of energy-saving technology, has played an important role in inhibiting the increase of CO2 embodied in export trade. Therefore, we should update foreign trade and industry structure and promote energy efficiencies. In other words, green transformation of trade structure must be carried out.