沙漠扩散预测模型的研究

Research of Desertifi cation on the Predicting Model

【目的】荒漠化危害是我国目前最大的环境问题之一。其发生最严重的地区主要集中于我国北方的农牧交错地带上,研究新疆独特的环境条件,提出较完善的沙漠化预测数学模型,从而预测沙漠扩散趋势,监测绿洲-沙漠交错带沙漠化情况。【方法】尝试从沙漠-绿洲之间的作用关系入手,分析交错带沙漠化的特征,以数学物理原理对沙漠扩散模型进行研究。【结果】前人提出的沙漠化率为常系数的模型不能够完整地解释沙漠动态变化情况。【结论】着重研究了沙漠化率系数,并提出沙漠化率系数为变系数的偏微分方程沙漠化预测模型,得到了精度更高的结果。因此,研究提出的模型更准确地预测出任意一年的沙漠面积,为治沙工作提供参考数据。

[ Objective] Recently, much attention has been paid to desertification, for the hazard of desertification has become the biggest environmental problem. Its occurrence to the most serious areas was mainly concentrated in Northern China pastoral areas. Many researches have been done about desert movement in different research areas and significant results have been achieved. But we found few studies were about desertification in differential equation. This paper will present a better desertification predictive mathematical model in order to predict desert spreading tendency. [ Method] In this paper the interaction between sandy land and spare vegetation in oasis -desert eco -zone was discussed and analyzed. [ Result] It was pointed out that the model of desertification invented previously could not completely explain the dynamic change of desertification. [ Conclusion ] So, it is necessary to establish the differential equation model under the real conditions.