山东省能源结构的灰色关联度分析——基于生产和消费结构约束的视角

Grey Relational Analysis of Energy Structure in Shandong Province from Perspective of Production and Consumption Structure Constraint

以2001—2010年山东省能源生产结构和消费结构的相关数据为样本,建立灰色关联模型,得出在能源生产结构中原煤、原油、天然气、水能与能源生产总量的关联度分别为0.865、0.769、0.804、0.578,在能源消费结构中,各能源与能源消费总量的关联度依次为0.935 4、0.821 2、0.724 3、0.663 8.实证表明,原煤的生产和消费依然是构成山东省能源结构的主体,也是导致其GDP能耗居高不下的主要原因.水电等清洁能源的关联度最低说明山东省清洁能源的利用程度较低.由此说明当前山东省能源利用的主要矛盾不是能源的总量性约束,而是能源的结构性约束.

This paper takes 2001-2010 energy production structure and consumption structure data of Shandong Province as samples to establish the gray connection model. The result indicates that in energy production structure, correlation degree between the raw coal, crude oil, natural gas,hydropower and the total energy production are 0.865,0.769,0.804,0.578 respectively while in energy consumption structure,correlation degree in order as 0.935 4, 0.821 2, 0.724 3,0.663 8. Empirical evidence shows that the raw coal production and consumption is still the main body of the Shandong Province energy structure, which is the main reason leading to the high GDP energy consumption. Hydropower and other clean energy associated with the lowest degree also shows that Shandong Province clean energy utilization degree is low. This means that the current energy use of Shandong Province, the main contradiction is not the total energy constraint, but the energy structural constraint.