FDI、人民币有效汇率对我国区域间进出口贸易的影响——基于动态面板模型的分析

The Influence of FDI and the Effective Exchange Rate of RMB on Regional Import and Export in China

本文以我国31个省、市、自治区1995-2009年的数据,建立动态面板模型,使用Arellano-Bond一阶差分广义矩估计法,将人民币汇率、FDI对进出口的影响纳入同一分析框架,考察人民币有效汇率、FDI对进出口贸易影响的区域差异和动态效应。结果表明各区域进出口贸易受其前期值的影响;FDI当期值对进出口具有促进作用,但存在明显的区域差异;人民币有效汇率对进出口贸易的影响也存在区域差异,但总体而言,人民币汇率对进出口的影响并不大。

Based on the data of China＇ s 31 provinces, municipalities or autonomous regions from 1995 to 2009, the paper establishes a dynamic panel data model and uses the Arellano-Bond-first difference GMM estimation method to study the regional differences and dynamic effects that the effective exchange rate of RMB and FDI impact on the import and export trade .The RMB exchange rate and FDI are considered under the same analytical framework. The re sults show that the import and export are subject to their pre-value respectively, the current value of FDI can promote the import and export, but there are significant regional differences. In sum, the effective exchange rate of RMB＇ s influence over the import and export is not obvious.