摘要
Leading time length is an important issue for modeling seasonal forecasts. In this study, a comparison of the interannual predictability of the Western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon between different leading months was performed by using one-, four-, and sevenmonth lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of four coupled models from Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) for the period of 1960 2005. It is found that the WNP summer anomalies, including lower-tropospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies, can be well predicted for all these leading months. The accuracy of the four-month lead prediction is only slightly weaker than that of the one-month lead prediction, although the skill decreases with the increase of leading months.
Leading time length is an important issue for modeling seasonal forecasts. In this study, a comparison of the interannual predictability of the Western North Pacific （WNP） summer monsoon between different leading months was performed by using one-, four-, and sevenmonth lead retrospective forecasts （hindcasts） of four coupled models from Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts （ENSEMBLES） for the period of 1960 2005. It is found that the WNP summer anomalies, including lower-tropospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies, can be well predicted for all these leading months. The accuracy of the four-month lead prediction is only slightly weaker than that of the one-month lead prediction, although the skill decreases with the increase of leading months.
基金
supported by the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (Grant No.GYHY201006021)
supported by the U.K. National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate (NCAS-Climate) at the University of Reading
