人均生活能源消费、收入和碳排放的面板数据分析

Panel Data Analysis of Per Capita Household Energy Consumption,Income and Carbon Emissions

人均能源消费量是反映一个国家经济发展水平和人民生活质量的重要指标。作为终端能源消费,生活用能对总能源的消费结构、供求关系和节能减排具有重要影响。本文以中国30个省、市、自治区为研究单元,分城镇、农村两类消费群体,从面板格兰杰因果检验到面板模型的参数估计,分析人均生活用能、收入和生活能源碳排放之间的内在关联和变化趋势。结果表明,这三个变量之间存在长期均衡关系,在空间过程上显示出有规律的变化趋向。在东、中、西部三个地带之间和同一地带的城乡之间,变截距模型估计的能耗和碳排放的固定效应差异主要受居民人均收入的影响,低收入的西部地区能耗和碳排放的基数小,但对收入变动的反应敏感。南北方向的固定效应则主要反映了地理因素的影响,北方省区气候寒冷引起了较多的能源消费和碳排放。为应对气候变化,需要大力调整用能结构,在开发可再生的清洁能源时,实施全过程的环境影响评估和节能减排措施。

Per capita energy consumption is an important indicator that reflects the economic development level and people’s quality of life of a nation.As a form of end-use energy,household energy consumption has great impacts on energy consumption structure,energy supply-demand relationship,as well as energy saving and emission reduction.Taking 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions of China,which are divided into urban and rural consumer groups,as the research unit,this paper has analyzed the internal connection and change trend of per capita household energy consumption（EN）,per capita income（IN）and per capita carbon emissions（CE）by using panel granger causality tests and parameter estimations of panel data models.The results indicate that there are long-term equilibrium relationships among these three variables,which show regular change trends in the spatial process.Among the three zones of eastern,central and western regions,and urban and rural areas of the same region,the fixed effect differences between EN and CE,which are estimated by variable intercept models are mainly affected by IN.Low-income western region has smaller cardinal number of household energy consumption and carbon emissions but is senstive to the changes of income as compared with the Eastern and Central regions.The fixed effects of the north-south direction mainly reflect the impacts of geographical factors.The cold climate in northern region incurs more energy consumption and carbon emission,while the South is just the opposite.Changes of intercept in urban areas are mostly influenced by energy consumption structures.The intercepts of provinces that consume more electricity,heat（exclusive of the direct carbon emissions）are less than 0,while those of provinces that consume more coal,oil（higher carbon emission factor）are more than 0.To cope with the climate change,we should make great efforts to adjust the energy consumption structures and implement environmental impact assessments of the whole process as well as energy saving and emission reduction measures while developing renewable clean energy.