考虑非理想产出的中国火电行业效率省际差异分析

Analysis of Efficiency Variances of Thermal Power Industry among China's Provinces with Undesirable Outputs Considered

本文采用考虑非理想产出的SBM-DEA(Slack Based Measure-DEA:SBM-DEA)模型分析2005年-2009年中国30个省市区火电行业运行效率差异。研究过程中,以经济与环境协调可持续发展为目标,将厂用电量和二氧化碳排放作为非理想产出纳入考察范围。首先,结合国家政策和各省市区电源结构特点,分析引起效率变化的深层次原因。然后,以2008年为例,对各省市区进行SBM效率全排序并分析投入产出指标的对偶价格。最后,结合各地区电力供需形势,找出改进火电行业效率,实现资源、环境、电力和谐发展的关键因素。结果表明:①把非理想产出引入评价指标体系,评价结果更能够满足资源与环境协调可持续发展的要求;②电力政策措施影响火电行业效率值;③资源禀赋决定各省市区的发电结构,进而影响效率值。

As the dominant generation form of China’s power industry,thermal power generates undesirable outputs such as carbon emissions,sulfur emissions and auxiliary power by using fossil fuels and labor.To coordinate with the global trend of sustainable development of economy and environment,this paper has analyzed the efficiency variances of thermal power industry among China’s thirty provinces from 2005 to 2009 with the SBM-DEA（Slack Based Measure-Data Envelopment Analysis：SBM-DEA）model,which considers undesirable outputs.Giving more information on slacks and production frontier,this approach can do further analysis on efficiency variances and evaluate the impacts of thermal power industry on regional sustainable development more objectively.In this paper,first,combining with national policies and power structures,we analyzed the reasons for efficiency variances as well as the impacts of resource endowment on thermal power industry;second,we sorted the provinces based on SBM efficiency of 2008 and discussed the dual prices of inputs and outputs;finally,under the assumption of sufficient power supply,we studied the critical factors that can improve the efficiency of thermal power industry and help to coordinate the development of resources and environment.Several valuable conclusions are as follows：1）With the consideration of undesirable outputs,the evaluation results could better satisfy the needs of harmonious and sustainable development of resources and environment;2）Policy reforms such as＂establish high-power station while dismantling small plants＂and ＂mine-mouth power plants＂influence the efficiency of power systems,and some have achieved remarkable effects;3）Resources endowment determines power structures to a certain extent,which influences the efficiency of power systems as well as the economic development.In short,the efficiency variances of thermal power industry come from different aspects.To achieve the purpose of coordinating development of economy and environment,we should take both desirable outputs and undesirable outputs into consideration in formulating the industry’s development plans.