基于协整理论的经济增长与生态环境变化关系分析——以重庆市渝东南地区为例

Co-integration theory-based analysis on relationships between economic growth and eco-environmental changes: taking the southeast district in Chongqing city as an example

许多研究文献忽略了经济增长和生态环境质量的双向作用机制,从而导致了变量之间的内生性偏差。与以往研究相比,主要在以下几方面进行分析:1)采用脉冲响应函数来分别考察生态环境与经济增长这两类变量之间的动态冲击反应。2)运用预测方差分解技术来考察经济增长与生态环境变化在解释因素变动时的相对重要性。结论:经济增长与生态环境之间存在长期的均衡关系,非平稳序列的经济增长指标、生态环境因子经过一阶差分后变得平稳,均为一阶单整,存在协整统计关系。从长期来看,人均GDP与废气排放量、固废排放量呈现负相关,而与矿产开采总量、化肥使用强度呈现正相关。其高度正相关性实证了该地区主要靠资源开发拉动经济增长。脉冲响应分析表明,快速经济增长是影响生态环境质量的重要原因,生态环境质量变化对经济增长存在着反作用力。就响应效果而言,生态环境对经济增长的负向响应表明生态环境退化将导致人们对生态环境质量需求偏好的改变,从而对经济增长进程的变化产生外在压力,但生态环境对经济增长的反馈效应具有滞后性。

Ecological environmental changes play critical roles in economic development,but environment conservation and economic growth always assumes the two-direcrtional interactions between them.When many countries and regions achieved high-speed economic growth,these activities also led to over-exploration and consumption of ecological resources that further caused serious environmental pollution and ecological damage.Based the related research literatures,the e influencing mechanisms of eco-environmental changes on economic growth can be concluded into 3 catagories,but most of the literatures ignored the two-way influencing mechanism between economic growth and ecological environmental changes because the feedback response of ecological environmental changes on economic growth was ignored,which led to a statistically variable deviation because economic growth itself is endogenous variable together determined by environmental change and other factors. Based on the time-series data between 1980—2009,this research conducted a dynamic quantitative analysis on economic development and environmental changes by using co-integration test and variance decomposition model,Compared with the previous studies,this research has mainly the following characteristics： 1）the long-term dynamic impulse response analysis between eco-environmental changes and economic growth using impulse response function method;2） predictive variance decomposition method is used to further investigate the relative importance level of economic growth and environmental changes in explaining the changes in economic and environmental factors. We have some conclusions as follows： There exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and environmental changes.The non-stationary indicators of economic growth and eco-environmental factors becomes stationary treated by a first-order difference technique and have statistically co-integration relations between them.Co-nintegration test showed that per capita GDP,gas discharge,solid wastes,fertilizer usage amount and exploiting of mineral resources by using the test model with intercept and trend term.The trace test and the maximum eigenvalue showed that there exists co-integration relationships among per capita GDP,waste gas discharge amount,solid wastes discharge,fertilizer usage amount and exploitting amount of mineral resources with an 5% of significance level.In the long run,per capita GDP is negatively correlated with waste gas discharge amount and solid waste discharge amount while it is positively correlated with exploiting amount of mineral resources and fertilizer usage intensity.The exploiting amount of mineral resources is negatively correlated with waste gas discharge amount and solid waste discharge amount while positively correlated with per capita GDP.Impulse response analysis based on VECM shows that fast economic growth was the main factor influencing environmental change,and eco-environmental degradation had a feedback actionon economic growth.From the effects of this kind of responses,the negative responses of eco-environmental degradation on economic growth showed that the increase of eco-environmental degradation led to the change in citizens′environmental preference which caused an external pressure on economic growth,but the feedback actions of eco-environmental changes on economic growth had a time delay.