基于数据挖掘的火电厂最经济煤种决策方法

Decision of the Most Economical Coal for Power Plants Based on Data Mining Technology

在分析煤质变化对火电厂运营成本影响的基础上,提出了综合评价发电企业的复合燃煤使用成本计算模型.基于数值型模糊关联规则数据挖掘方法,确定了煤质特性与发电企业的燃煤装卸倒运成本、污染物排放成本、原煤采购成本、脱硫系统运行成本、辅机耗电成本及设备维护成本的关联关系,提出了一种基于数据挖掘技术的最经济煤种决策方法.以某电厂3年历史运行数据为基础,对4种预采购煤种的复合燃煤使用成本进行了比较分析,在高价优质煤与低价劣质煤之间确定了最经济煤种.结果表明:燃煤采购决策既需要考虑发电企业生产过程的多个环节,也需要考虑燃煤价格因素及燃煤的煤质因素.燃用便宜的劣质煤不一定比燃用价格较高的优质煤更合算,一味追求高品质的高价煤或低价格的劣质煤都是不可取的,煤种2为该厂的最经济煤种.

By analyzing the effects of coal quality on operating cost of coal-fired power plants, an evaluation model was established for calculating the comprehensive use cost of fuel coal. Based on fuzzy association rule data mining technology, an algorithm was proposed to determine the correlations between the coal quality and the power plant operating cost, including the coal transportation cost, the anti-pollution cost, the coal purchasing cost, and the equipment maintenance cost, while a method put forward for decision of the most economical coal. On the basis of 3 years operating data of a power plant, an analysis has been car ried out on comprehensive cost of the 4 coals in the pre-procurement plan, after which the most economical coal is determined. Results show that not only the production processes of power plant, but also the coal price and coal quality should be considered in determination of the coal procurement policy. It is not always more economical to burn low-price low-quality coal than high-price high-quality coal. In above case, coal No. 2 is finally determined as the most economical one.