2015年我国煤炭需求量预测实证研究

A demonstration research on the forecast of China's coal demand in 2015

"十二五"时期是煤炭行业转变经济发展方式的关键时期,科学预测2015年的煤炭需求量对于制定"十二五"煤炭产量总量控制目标十分必要。本文应用协整模型,结合马尔科夫模型,对2015年煤炭需求量进行预测。认为我国在能源规划约束条件下,2015年我国煤炭需求量高、中、低三种情境下分别为36.65亿t、38.37亿t和40.17亿t,可以完成我国"十二五"期间CO2减排及非化石能源消费比重的约束性目标。

The 12th-five-year period （2011-2015） is a crucial period for accelerating economic develop- ment strategy transition in China, In order to secure a smooth transition, scientific planning, forecasting and demand remodeling, consumption control/management need to be analyzed and considered from a legislative level. This paper systematically analyzes the impact of coal production/consumption influencing fac- tors, constructing models from over 30 variables, applies co-integration theory and Markov Chain model to forecast China＇s energy demand, It shows that within constraints, there are three consumption scenarioshigh/mid/low, the coal consumptions are 3. 665 billion tons, 3. 837 billion tons and 4. 017 billion tons accordingly;