能源价格变动对能源效率影响研究

Study on the impact of energy price variation on energy efficiency

本文选取1980～2009年的年度数据,通过Johansen协整检验、Granger因果关系检验,并构建直接效应模型和状态空间模型,实证分析了电力、煤炭、石油价格与能源效率之间的关系。结果表明,三类能源价格与能源效率之间存在长期均衡关系,其上升能够改善能源效率,其中电力价格作用效力最大,其次是石油、煤炭价格,但改善程度仍就较小,当前仅通过能源价格手段提高能源效率难度较大;能源间替代能小幅稳定提升能源效率;三类能源价格对能源效率的促进作用在上升中呈现波动起伏。基于此,本文进行了相应的分析和思考,并对充分利用能源价格手段促进能源效率提出了政策建议。

Based on the annual data from 1980 to 2009, which passed the Johansen cointegrated verifica tion and Granger causality verification, this article established the direct effects model and state space model to analyze the relationship between electricity, coal and oiPs prices and energy efficiency. The results show that energy efficiency and price of the three types of energy has a longrun equilibrium relationship, and their rise can improve energy efficiency~ and their effect on energy efficiency gradually weaken as the order electricity price, oil price and coal price, but this improving degree is very small. Currently, it is hard to improve energy efficiency only by means of energy price. Besides, the substitution between energy can slightly and steadily improve energy efficiency. The promoting effect of three types of energy price on ener gy efficiency is increase in fluctuation. Based on this, this article analyzes the problem and offers advices for how to make full use of energy prices to improve energy efficiency.