电力行业碳减排情景设计与分析评价

Scenario Design,Analysis and Evaluation on Carbon Emission Reduction in Power Industry

电力行业碳减排潜力是研究如何把单位GDP碳减排总量目标分解到各个行业的重要基础工作之一。研究综合考虑产业结构优化、电源结构优化、节能政策和节能减排技术进步对电力行业碳减排的影响,提出了一种对不同的碳减排情景设计与分析评价模型。以重庆市电力行业为案例设计了3种情景,研究认为产业结构优化对电力行业碳减排影响较大,但投资额巨大;水火电资源限制电源结构优化的碳减排潜力;电力节能减排技术推广应用对碳减排影响显著,且投资成本适中;产业结构变化与电力行业供电量达到倒"U"型顶点之前对电力生产进行强制调整,将对经济有较大损害。

The study on the potential of carbon reduction of power industry is an important part for the research method to decompose the national carbon reduction target to various industries. A scenario analysis method was proposed and used to analyze and evaluate various carbon reduction scenarios based on the study on the affection of industrial structure, power resource structure, energy savings policy and technological progress on the carbon emissions of power industry. As a case, three scenarios are designed for power industry in Chongqing. The research results show that the influence of industrial structure optimization on carbon emission is greater in power industry, but the investment also is huge; the potential of carbon emission reduction from structural optimization of power source is restricted by hydro and thermal resources; application and dissemination of energy-saving and emission reduction technology in power industry greatly influence carbon emission reduction, and the investment scale for this purpose is appropriate; the imperative structural adjustment of power industry that is carried out before the power supply amount reaching to the top of the inverted U-form curve describing the relation betweenindustrial structure change and power demand of industries will evidently affect the economy.