北京城市交通发展水平与宏观路网运行状态关系模型

Model of Relation between Urban Transportation Development and Macroscopic Road Network Operation in Beijing

在对北京城市交通发展水平统计分析的基础上,提出了城市交通发展水平指标选取的原则,从社会发展、交通供给和交通需求3个方面构建了由16个指标组成的城市交通发展水平综合评价指标体系,并提出了基于路网拥堵指数和骨干网高峰小时运行速度的宏观路网运行状态评价指标体系。通过对2003—2010年北京市实际数据的搜集和指标处理,确定了关系模型的输入指标,利用偏最小二乘方法建立城市交通发展水平与路网运行状态关系模型,并利用现有数据对模型进行验证,验证结果表明:模型精度在10%以内,能较好地满足实际应用需求。关系模型能为北京市未来城市交通发展决策和交通发展战略提供重要支撑。

Based on the statistical analysis of Beijing urban transportation development level, we put forward the principle for selecting the indicators of urban transportation development level, created the comprehensive evaluation index system for urban transportation development level consisting 16 indexes in the aspects of social development, transportation supply and transportation demand, and established the evaluation index system for macroscopic road network operation based on road network congestion index （CI） and arterial network＇s peak-hour travel speed. By gathering and processing the statistical data of Beijing during 2003 - 2010, we identified the input indexes for the relation model, established the relation model between urban transportation development level and road network operation by using partial least square （PLS） method, and the relation model was validated by the available data. The validation result shows that the model＇s precision is within 10%, which can meet the need of actual use. The model can support the decision-making for Beijing＇s future urban transportation development and transportation development strategy.