福建省农业贷款对农林牧渔总产值影响的实证分析

Empirical analysis of the effects of agricultural loans on the total output value of farming,forestry,stock raising and fishery in Fujian

采用福建省1995-2009年农业贷款和农林牧渔总产值的数据,运用协整和误差修正模型,对二者的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,农业贷款与农林牧渔总产值之间存在着长期均衡关系。根据协整模型,福建省农业贷款增加1个单位,农林牧渔总产值将同方向变动1.9683个单位。在协整回归的基础上建立了农业贷款与农林牧渔总产值的误差修正模型,结果显示误差修正项系数为负,符合相反修正机制,且调整量是前一期偏离幅度的1.0577倍。通过格兰杰因果关系检验,在3年内农业贷款是农林牧渔总产值的格兰杰原因,但是农林牧渔总产值并不是农业贷款的格兰杰原因。

This paper has calculated 1995 -2009 annual economic data and analyzed the effects of agricultural loans on the total out- put of farming, forestry, stock raising and fishery by using cointeration and error correction model. The results show thai agricultural loans and the total output of farming, forestry, stock raising and fishery have a long-term balanced relationship. According to the cointegration model, when the agricultural loans add a unit, the total output of farming, forestry, stock raising and fishery will increase with 1. 9683 units in the same direction. By establishing error correction model for the agricultural loans and the total output of farming, forestry, stock raising and fishery on the basis of cointcgration test, the result is that the coefficient of error correction term is negative which is according with reverse correction mechanism. In addition, the adjustment range are 1. 0577 times the last deviation. Through the granger causality test, it can be found that agricultural loans are the granger cause of the total output of farming, forestry, stock raising and fishery during three years, but the total output of farming, forestry, stock raising and fishery is not the granger cause of agricultural loans.