木质纤维植物制乙醇项目风险评估探讨

Risk assessment of project of wood fiber plant making ethanol

木质纤维植物制乙醇技术的研发是一开发周期长、资金投入大、不可预测因素多的系统工程,具有高风险性。文章结合国内外木质纤维植物制乙醇技术的研发现状、经验和发展趋势,从资金来源、政策、技术、市场、生产、管理等风险着手,建立多目标的评估指标体系,并对这6类风险进行评估和应对措施分析。文章旨在为国内纤维素乙醇项目的技术研发、技术比选、厂址选择、技术储备等工作提供参考依据,以保证项目正确的投资决策,减少投资的盲目性,有效地应对各种风险。

The R＆D on technology of producing ethanol from lignocelluloses is a high risk systems engineering. It will lead us to spent a long develop cycle, to invest a lot of capital and to have much unpredictability. So we should combine with the its R＆D current status, experience and development trends, and establish a multibjective risk evaluation index covering sources of funding, policy, technology, market risk, production, management and other risk, to perform a risk assessment and response measures analysis for them. The results can provide a reference for R＆D prospects ,technology comparison ,plant site selection and technical reserves of cellulose ethanol project, so that we can make correct investment decisions, reduce investment blindness and respond the risk effectively.