风电功率预测研究方法综述

Review on Wind Power Prediction Methods

风电场穿透功率不断加大,对电力系统安全、稳定、经济、可靠运行造成威胁,因此进行风电功率预测,不断提高预测精度意义日益突出。针对已有的风电功率预测方法,按照预测时间尺度、预测模型对象和预测模型原理不同,对风电功率预测方法进行系统分类,详细综述了组合预测方法和区域预测方法。并列表给出各预测方法的优缺点及适用场合。针对目前风电功率预测存在的一些问题,提出相应改进措施。

Increasing wind power penetration poses a threat to the power system operation in terms of security, stabili- ty, economy and reliability, thus improving the accuracy of wind power prediction is more and more important. So far, many researchers have made their contributions to exploration of wind power prediction methods. This paper sum- marizes the existing wind power forecasting methods as well as attempts to categorize them systematically based on the prediction time scale, model and subject, and give a detailed overview of combined forecasting methods and regional forecasting methods. Based on the domestic and foreign wind power prediction status, the advantages and disadvantages are listed for every forecast method, as well as their applicable locations. Finally, this paper proposes some improvement measures against the main existing problems in wind power prediction.