基于层次-模糊评价法的山区油气管道地质灾害易发性研究

Study on occurrence of geological hazards for oil and gas pipelines through the mountains based on AHP-fuzzy evaluation

针对山区油气管道地质灾害的基本特征,将层次分析与模糊综合评价相结合,建立起可用于山区管道地质灾害易发性评价的层次-模糊评价模型;并从自然因素、管道敷设状况、灾害活动和设计与误操作四个方面建立山区油气管道地质灾害易发性评价体系。首先依据专家经验构造各层影响因素的判断矩阵,并利用层次分析法求出各影响因素的权重集,然后对山区油气管道地质灾害易发性进行多级模糊综合评价,最终根据评价结果确定山区油气管道地质灾害易发性等级。通过具体实例检验了本文所建立评价方法的应用效果。

Aiming at the basic characteristics of geological hazards for oil and gas pipelines through the mountains, AHP（ analytic hierarchy process） was combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the AHP-fuzzy model used to evaluate the occurrence of geological hazards for oil and gas pipelines through the mountains was established in this article. Based on four aspects of natural factors, pipe laying conditions, hazard activities, design and incorrect operations, the evaluation system of occurrence of geological hazards for oil and gas pipelines through the mountains was built. Firstly, based on many experts＇ experience, the matrix of each layer＇ s influence factors was set up, and the weight set of each factor was calculated by AHP. Then the occurrence of geological hazards of oil and gas pipelines through the mountains was evaluated based on the AHP-fuzzy evaluation. Finally according to the evaluation results, the level of occurrence of geological hazards of oil and gas pipelines through the mountains could be determined. The application effect of the evaluation method established in this article was proved by practical example.