摘要
本文引入套期保值投资者以及基于反馈策略的个体投机者,构建了一个由两类交易者共同作用的价格决定模型,并对期货市场交易者的行为进行均衡分析。基于一个均衡模型推导出投资行为影响下的市场价格波动,进而得到可检验假说,并对上海期货交易所各期货品种进行检验。通过实证检验发现,铝和天胶期货市场存在"买涨杀跌"的惯性行为,相对而言,铜和燃料油期货市场的交易者比较成熟,其投资者采用基于价值的投资策略。此外,通过实证模拟得出期货市场个体投机者所占比例越高,市场流动性越强,价格波动越小的结论。
In the paper, hedgers and investors holding feedback strategies are introduced and a price deciding model with combined effect of two types of traders is built. Based on the equilibrium model, market price fluctuations are carried out under the influence of investor behaviors, and tested hypothesis can be derived. Through the empirical testing aimed at varieties in Shanghai futures market, the main results can be concluded as follows. There is inertial behavior of ＂to buy when up, and to sell when down ＂ in the aluminum and rubber futures markets, and copper and oil futures markets are more mature, holding value-based strategies. In addition, the higher the proportion of individual investors in the futures market, the more intense the market liquidity, and the smaller the price fluctuations.
出处
《管理评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第5期60-65,共6页
Management Review
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71071034)
